This text discusses the importance of effective decision-making in small businesses, where decisions can have a significant impact on success or failure. The author shares their framework for making decisions, which involves writing down the decision to be made and its potential solutions, identifying unknowns associated with each option, determining confidence levels for positive outcomes, evaluating overall confidence in each choice, comparing known factors if applicable, making the decision, evaluating the outcome, and reflecting on luck. The author emphasizes the role of luck in decision-making and encourages readers to follow a similar framework to separate their beliefs from their decision-making process, leading to more informed and rational decisions.